Monday, July 16, 2007


Putin's big gamble

Russia has decided to pull out of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty in an open test to see if the EU will fall with the US on the missile defense shield. There is not much Russia can directly to do the US to stop the shield being placed next to its borders so it seems Putin has decided to "check" the US by trying to scare the shit out of Europe. But that is not all it is about.
The treaty limits the deployment of forces in eastern and central Europe and is very important to arms control in the region. It was signed in 1990 between the Warsaw Pact and Nato, and changed again in 1990.
Putin is also looking to rewrite the rules of play that were written when Russia was weak. Now Russia is strong again and a major player in both European and Asian affairs. Putin wants the new rules to show that.
Putin has warned Bush so many times that the stupid defence shield will start another arms race. Russia is not ready to become part of the enemy Nato and does not want its neighbors to be part of its enemy too. And why should it let them?
Already Putin has tried to nicely show Bush that he is making a big mistake, with the test firing of missiles that can make the defense shield useless. But I suppose when he has friends who have famlies to keep in furs and caviar - like the people in the arms industry, he will stop at nothing and once again, the stupid American people will pay.
Now it will be Europe that will pay too because the treaty is more important to European countries than it is to the US.
There are already problems in the Russian EU relationships and also the relationship with Britain is being troubled by the thief uncle Boris and his people.
But there will be very little change to troop movements and ranks in the area. All that will happen is that the two sides will trust each other even less and there will be fewer PR exercises.
Turning the threat back on to Europe Russia is forcing it to think more carefully about missile defence. The Kremlin was not happy when Europe is backed Bush plans to put anti-missile radar in the Czech Republic. Do they think Russia held the Czechs so closely all this time for friendship? The Americans know full well that those batteries and the interceptor rockets they want to put in Poland will push out of balance the status quo as it is now in Europe - just when people where settling down to trade and mutual friendship. Trust the US jackboot to fall right there.
The gamble for Putin is how the Europeans will act. We know that Bush has done America no favours in Europe with his wars torture renditions. But do the Europeans see that he is threatening Russia or do they think Russia is the threat? If they think the latter they might join the US in this matter.
There are a lot of issues that are bothering Russia at the moment and Europe will not be fooled into thinking this is just about missiles. The EU knows there are also economic issues that need to be brought into the open and discussion. Putin has not put this on the menu yet, but he will wait and see how Brussels reacts before he does. This can be a big push for Russia to gain power and influence at the expense of America, or it can lose badly.
Russia should join the EU and fuck the Yanks over properly--all America wants is a divided Europe, the EU does not suit them at all. Once Russia joins the EU, the Yanks will be totally isolated.
the EU should leave Nato then perhaps russia could join it. but as it stands now there is a ring of steel around russia and further threats with talks of star wars missile bases closer and closer to is not a good mixture for diplomacy
And Europe is dead, finished, old, tired, haggard. China is where all the action is. Why should Russia join Europe when all Europe has been is hostile? China has a fat check book just waiting for Russia's oil and gas instead of all this stupid fucking about with the Ukraine causing "scares" about Russian gas delivery and Europe nodding along with that. Just cut them loose and let them wallow in their own lame arse stupidity. They think the rest of the world owes them a favour. It doesn't.
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