Isidingo - The Need

This week Washington heads to the United Nations Security Council's debate on Kosovo, with most of Europe alongside it, pressing for independence. What does a little state in Europe have to do with the US? Nothing as usual. But there they are.
Most of the EU is with them on this idea that there should be an Islamic state right in the middle. Because, of course, that is what the world needs - more Islamic states.
What has changed this time from the last Kosovo crisis is that Russia is far more powerful. Also, Serbia has an ally in China, and strangely, South Africa. What does South Africa have to do with this? Only they know.
Serbia has flipped the tables on the EU. For the first time, a European country outside the EU is not clamoring to be let in, but, on the contrary, making demands of its own, insisting Europe continue negotiations over Kosovo until an agreeable solution to all parties is met. They see their neighbours who bowed and scraped to be let in the EU that now have crumbling infrastructure and lower wages than the Serbs do and wonder what all the fuss is about. Basically Serbia doesn't need to export its unemployment to Europe.
They believe, quite rightly, that to use force to separate the 90% ethnic Muslim area from Serbia would destabalise the Balkans. They are not alone in thinking this way as they are supported by Spain, Cyprus, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Greece.
One can only assume that this hacking away at Serbian, and de facto Russian territory is the west's punishment and a further move to strangle Russia. It is only natural that Russia will protect its neighbours and people who are of the same ethnic origin. It has learned in its scraps with Chechnya and its war with Afghanistan, what can happen when you have these broken-down Muslim states along your borders.
Kosovo has ties to the global jihad movement and organised crime. It's a Taleban state waiting to happen. Why, in their wildest dreams, would the UKUS think Serbia and Russia would welcome this?
Not everyone in the US is gagging at the idea too. Former Navy admiral and Joint Chiefs of Staff adviser James Lyons recognises the danger of giving Muslim fundamentalists a launchpad for their attacks in a key strategic area. Its independence, he noted, will lead to a "train wreck" in relations with Russia.
Former U.S. secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger has cautioned against carving Kosovo away from Serbia for the repercussions it would have on future global policy.
All of this has had the effect of driving Serbia into the arms of Russia, and that is just what Moscow wants. Moscow is talking to Belgrade about putting a Russian military base in Serbia. Belgrade wants to sell its oil to Gazprom.
The problem is that the UKUS have promised Kosovo independance. A promise many say should never have been made.
Russia's Kosovo negotiator, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, has clearly warned the EU and the US against forcing the issue. Let us not forget what happened to Europe when there was trouble in Serbia before.
"The result of unilateral recognition of independence could be a situation close to a humanitarian catastrophe," he said. This is not a threat, Serb refugees would flow into northern Kosovo and Serbia.
Russia is looking for a chance to flex it's military muscle. Missile tests and Naval drills are all well and good but that is like having a ferrari at your home and only driving it around the garden.
Putin has sent clear signals to the west that Russia is ready too stand again.
How far is the EU and US willing to push this?

Labels: America, EU, kosovo, Russia, Serbia, South Africa